May 6th, 2013
This week has little scheduled that is expected to drive bond trading and mortgage rates. There are no relevant monthly or quarterly economic reports on the calendar. In fact, the only economic news even worth watching is the weekly unemployment update from the Labor Department that usually draws little attention. We do, however, have two Treasury auctions that can potentially affect rates the middle part of the week.
Friday’s Employment report led to a significant sell-off in bonds and a large spike in mortgage rates. With nothing scheduled to help bond traders forget about Friday’s selling, the negative tone in stocks could carry into Monday’s trading. This is especially true if stocks open the week in positive ground. In other words, we could be in for further increases to mortgage rates the next day or two.
The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sale, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal, could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons. After Friday’s selling, it is difficult to portray a scenario that gives us high hope for these auctions. At best, I believe we will be fortunate if they are a non-factor towards mortgage rates.
The week closes with a speaking engagement from Fed Chairman Bernanke mid-morning Friday. He will be speaking at a Fed banking conference in Chicago. Since this is the first time he will be public since last Friday’s employment news and the reaction the markets had, look for his words to cause a little volatility in the broader markets, and possibly mortgage rates.
Due to the lack of factual economic data to drive the markets this week, we should see bond trading and mortgage pricing to be heavily influenced by stock market direction. If the major stock indexes move higher, mortgage rates will probably follow suit. Ideally, mortgage shoppers should hope for stock market weakness as it would be the best scenario for mortgage rates to take back some of Friday’s increases.
Overall, I think we will see Monday be a fairly active day as Friday’s stock and bond market sentiment will probably carry into Monday’s trading. That will likely mean we start off the week with an increase in mortgage rates, but to a much smaller scale as last Friday’s move. Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction could also cause movement in rates during afternoon hours. However, any of this week’s moves will most likely be much smaller than some of last week’s changes were, comparatively speaking. With little to be optimistic about and the negative tone in bonds that will probably continue at least during the first day or so of trading this week, it is difficult to justify floating an interest rate if closing soon. Therefore, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.